Predictability can sometimes be associated with a lack of personality or dynamism. But it also means steady and reliable, and when it comes to airside operations, that is perfect.

Unpredictability has a highly detrimental effect on airside operations. It causes delays and disruptions to aircraft operations and causes people, equipment and facilities to be used inefficiently. So, by increasing predictability airport resources can be optimised, removing some of the inefficiencies. This whole topic is becoming increasingly important as airports aim to reduce costs, cut congestion and improve the passenger experience.

The problem is that predictability at airports (landside or airside) is difficult to achieve. It involves many different parties working together ultra-efficiently in a complex environment. Even the cause of delays can be difficult to pin down since they may be the result of knock-on effects or caused by several interacting factors.

An essential part of the process is quantifying and measuring the potential benefits of increasing predictability. We can do this by modelling the operations on the airport surface, including aircraft and supporting resources such as ground handling and de-icing equipment. The benefits can then be quantified, for example in terms of airport KPIs, financial impact or environmental consequences.

Arlanda Stockholm is one airport that is adopting the latest techniques to improve operational efficiency and this initiative was part of its "Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)" project. You can read more about their experience in our white paper as well as the benefits they realised by improving predictability. And you can find out more about Airport CDM in this special bulletin on the subject from ATC Network, or at Eurocontrol’s dedicated Airport CDM portal. You can watch also a movie which describes the benefits and mechanics of CDM, this time from the perspective of Schiphol Airport.

Predictability is just one aspect of airport CDM, but achieving it delivers very real benefits to the bottom line for airports. So let's give predictability the status that it deserves as a positive attribute, rather than a negative one!

Related contents

• Helios white paper "Enhancing airside operations by improving predictability - Quantifying the benefits"
• “Airport CDM Steps to Efficiency”: Helios supported Eurocontrol in developing this document aimed to help demonstrate the benefits of successful Airport CDM implementations in Europe
• “Airport resilience - One corner of the performance diamond”: a conference paper by Mike Fairbanks at GAD2011

Contact the author

Nick McFarlane
Managing Director
Tel: +44 1252 451 641
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